Women's AP Top 25 Round-Up: Jockeying For Tournament Seeding Begins
Women's AP Top 25 Round-Up: Jockeying For Tournament Seeding Begins
With March's arrival comes the final push for AP Top 25 teams looking to secure favorable seeding in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
A weekly musical chairs among the nation's top-ranked teams continues heading into March, and forecasting how the tumult will shape the NCAA Tournament is anyone's guess.
Just three weeks remain until Selection Sunday. If the final Associated Press Top 25 Poll of February is any indication, however, the outlook for the bracket will change on a weekly — and more likely, daily — basis.
The Top 25 isn't a direct representation of seeding, but it does offer a roadmap. Applying teams' current rankings to seeding, the Feb. 26 poll sees change on the No. 1 seed line — Iowa is out, Texas is in — UCLA surging from clinging to a No. 3 seed to now on the No. 2 line; and Gonzaga moving into top four-seed position for the first time on the season.
And that only scratches the surface of the turbulence evident around the nation as March truly comes in like a lion.
Though almost certain to change, the seeding landscape going into the first weekend of March based on resumes as of Feb. 27 and looking ahead to remaining schedules shakes out as follows:
One-Seed Lock: South Carolina
Barring a complete collapse down the stretch, the Gamecocks will complete an almost wire-to-wire run as the nation's No. 1-ranked team and will thus sew up the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.
One-Seed Contenders
It isn't far-fetched to suggest a team currently ranked as low as in the mid-teens on Feb. 26 could ascend to a No. 1 seed, based both on the overall chaos we've already seen this season and with high-profile opportunities still ahead of them.
Among that category is surprising Oregon State. The overall strength of the Pac-12 presents weekly chances to make a splash, which starts for the Beavers on Feb. 29 when they host Stanford.
Oregon State also has the weakest NET rating of the Pac-12's top four, however, sitting at No. 19 as of Feb. 27. Stanford's is the best at No. 4, with UCLA just behind at No. 5. The Bruins' surge up the AP Poll came before a Feb. 26 against Colorado, top 20 in both the AP and NET.
Because there's such a logjam and routine weekly change near the top, a team realistically vying for a No. 1 seed going into March could easily slide as far as a No. 4 even without noteworthy losses.
ACC: Virginia Tech, North Carolina State
BIG EAST: UConn
Big Ten: Ohio State, Iowa
Big 12: Texas
Pac-12: Stanford, USC, UCLA, Oregon State
SEC: LSU
Teams The NET Likes More Than Pollsters
UConn, Duke, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Washington State
Just as the AP Top 25 isn't an infallible barometer for the NCAA Tournament bracket, NET ranking doesn't directly project postseason positioning. The NET is a component of the selection process, however, which is heartening for the above quartet of teams.
UConn has lingered from around 10-to-15 in the AP Poll for several weeks, the result of losses incurred playing an especially tough schedule. That difficult docket has also buoyed the Huskies all the way to No. 2 in NET.
UConn might need some help from other one-seed competitors in order to return to that familiar spot atop a bracket, but its NET positioning suggests it's hardly unrealistic.
Gonzaga, which broke into the top 16 for the first time on Feb. 26, has been on a slow, incremental climb for more than two months. The Bulldogs would be a No. 3 seed applying only NET ranking, however, as they check in at No. 12.
Three teams unranked in the AP Top 25 — Michigan State, Duke and Washington State — are each top 25 caliber per the NET. The Spartans sit at No. 22 with a 20-7 overall record.
Washington State, No. 25 in NET, is 17-12 and would presumably need to reach 20 wins by Selection Sunday to feel good about its at-large prospects.
Locking In At-Large
Each of Creighton and UNLV — both still in the Top 25 — and UNLV finish out their regular seasons looking to lock in at-large berths.
While UNLV and Princeton will be favorites in their respective conference tournaments, Creighton faces the uphill battle of trying to dethrone UConn in the BIG EAST.
The Bluejays have been in the AP Top 25 much of the season and should be safe, but closing out the regular season strong and a win or two in the BIG EAST Tournament should solidify Creighton somewhere in the range of a No. 6 seed.
Bracket-Crashers
A few that have spent much of the campaign on the outside looking in but that could steal a bid in the coming weeks include 2021 national runner-up Arizona. The Wildcats resurrected a seemingly lost season at .500 overall a few weeks ago with a rout of Washington State and a road win against then-No. 3 Stanford.
Arizona surged to the top 35 of NET with a home weekend set against USC and UCLA to close out the regular season. A sweep of the Los Angeles teams just might assure the Wildcats a bid after looking like a non-factor as recently as Valentine's Day.
Feb. 26 Women's AP Top 25
1. South Carolina
Record: 27-0
Previous: No. 1
2. Ohio State
Record: 24-3
Previous: No. 2
3. Texas
Record: 26-3
Previous: No. 5
4. Stanford
Record: 24-4
Previous: No. 3
5. Virginia Tech
Record: 23-4
Previous: No. 8
6. Iowa
Record: 24-4
Previous: No. 4
7. USC
Record: 21-5
Previous: No. 7
8. UCLA
Record: 22-5* (beat No. 13 Colorado on Feb. 26, 53-45)
Previous: No. 12
9. LSU
Record: 24-4
Previous: No. 13
10. UConn
Record: 24-5
Previous: No. 15
11. Oregon State
Record: 22-5
Previous: No. 9
12. North Carolina State
Record: 23-5
Previous: No. 6
13. Colorado
Record: 20-7* (lost to No. 8 UCLA on Feb. 26)
Previous: No. 11
14. Indiana
Record: 22-4
Previous: No. 14
15. UConn
Record: 23-5* (won Monday vs. Creighton)
Previous: No. 11
16. Gonzaga
Record: 28-2
Previous: No. 16
17. Notre Dame
Record: 21-6
Previous: No. 19
18. Utah
Record: 20-8
Previous: No. 18
19. Syracuse
Record: 23-5
Previous: No. 17
20. Oklahoma
Record: 20-7
Previous: No. 23
21. Baylor
Record: 21-6
Previous: No. 24
22. Louisville
Record: 20-7
Previous: No. 20
23. Creighton
Record: 22-4
Previous: No. 21
24t. UNLV
Record: 24-2
Previous: Unranked
24t. West Virginia
Record: 22-5
Previous: No. 22