Luka Doncic: What To Expect From Potential Top Pick At EuroLeague Final 4
Luka Doncic: What To Expect From Potential Top Pick At EuroLeague Final 4
Luka Doncic is considered a lock for a top-two pick in June's NBA Draft, but you can catch him before in the EuroLeague Final Four for Real Madrid.
By Austin Green
Potential No. 1 pick Luka Doncic faces a massive challenge on Friday when he and Real Madrid battle CSKA Moscow in the EuroLeague Final Four.
Doncic came up short at last year’s Final Four, going scoreless in 17 minutes against eventual champion Fenerbahce.
With another year of experience under his belt, the 19-year-old can redeem himself this week. However, it won’t be easy.
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Simply put, CSKA are a juggernaut. They are the best team outside of the NBA, cruising to a 24-6 record in the regular season with a three-game cushion over second place.
CSKA have the EuroLeague’s best offense and third-best defense. They have several great defenders to throw at Doncic, including Kyle Hines, a 6-foot-6 center whose ability to protect the rim and smother guards on the perimeter has earned him EuroLeague’s Best Defender trophy two of the last three years.
Although the two teams split their season series, CSKA will be considered the favorite. And with an arena full of NBA scouts and executives, Doncic enters the game with a lot of pressure.
Here’s everything you need to know about how he matches up against CSKA and how they could look to expose him.
Doncic 2017-18 Stats (31 Games)
16.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.4 APG, 58.3% 2FG, 33.1% 3FG, 82% FT, 2.3 turnovers per game, 5.7 fouls drawn per game
Doncic vs CSKA (Two Games)
17.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, 50% 2FG, 27.2% 3FG, 70% FT, 3 turnovers per game, 7.5 fouls drawn per game
WHEN CSKA HAVE THE BALL
1. Send His Man To The Offensive Glass
Doncic was one of EuroLeague’s most productive rebounders this year, especially for a perimeter player. He finished 10th among all players in the regular season with 3.8 defensive rebounds per game.
However, when a shot goes up, he tends to stare at the ball and drift toward the rim, rather than putting a body on his man. CSKA punished him for this in their two meetings this season.
They constantly sent his man — usually the much stronger Nikita Kurbanov — to the offensive glass. They created nine second-chance opportunities simply because Doncic didn’t box out.
Against a high-powered offense like CSKA, you can’t afford to give them extra chances. If Doncic doesn’t do a better job in the Final Four, it will be difficult for Real Madrid to get some much-needed stops.
2. Test Doncic In The Post
Doncic’s post defense is one of his main weaknesses. CSKA exploited this in the regular season when he was defending stronger guys like Kurbanov and Othello Hunter.
CSKA went to Kurbanov in the post vs Doncic three times early in their first game, resulting in two buckets and one turnover (plus one foul on Doncic). In the second game, Hunter got an easy and-one vs Doncic when he switched onto him at the start of the play.
Post-ups aren’t really the strong suit of CSKA’s offense. They thrive when Sergio Rodriguez and Nando de Colo are running pick-and-rolls, breaking down the defense off the dribble, and kicking it out to open shooters.
If they look to isolate Doncic in the post too often, it could take them out of the flow of their offense and disrupt what they do best.
However, it would be worthwhile to post him up a few times in the first quarter to see if they can get him in early foul trouble and maybe get a couple easy buckets.
3. Attack Him With Speed (Nando de Colo & Sergio Rodriguez)
In their meetings during the regular season, Doncic actually did a great job when matched up against Will Clyburn — an NBA-sized wing who is one of the most dangerous straight-line drivers in Europe. He forced him to his weak hand, stayed in front and blocked his shot.
But against the speedier Nando de Colo, Doncic didn’t fare as well. De Colo is one of the best pure scorers in Europe. He was second in the league in points per game this season (16.9) while shooting 58 percent on twos, 51 percent on threes, and 94 percent from the free throw line.
He is quick and crafty, and Doncic struggles to stay in front of guys like him. Whenever De Colo and Sergio Rodriguez see Doncic in front of them, they need to be aggressive.
EuroLeague this weekend, only on FloHoops:
May 18: CSKA vs Real Madrid
May 18: Fenerbache Dogus Istanbul vs Zalgiris Kaunas
May 20: EuroLeague Championship Game
WHEN REAL MADRID HAVE THE BALL
1. Get Back In Transition
Doncic is incredibly dangerous in transition. He loves to grab defensive rebounds and push the ball upcourt, and at 6-8 and 220 pounds, he’s tough to stop when he gets a full head of steam.
He also likes to spot up at the three-point line if a teammate is attacking on the fastbreak. CSKA need to stay in front of Doncic before he can get a running start, and if he doesn’t have the ball, they need to find him immediately.
2. Keep De Colo Away From Him
While De Colo can exploit him on one end of the floor, he is not the guy you want defending Doncic. Doncic cooked him in the regular season, scoring on him in the post, beating him off the dribble and making a three after getting him to bite on a pump-fake.
3. Force Doncic Into Step-Back Threes
Doncic is in love with the step-back three, and while it’s a shot he can make, it’s an incredibly difficult one.
CSKA have a roster full of versatile defenders. Their big guys can guard on the perimeter, and that ability to switch should serve them well against Doncic.
When CSKA crowded Doncic in the regular season, he picked them apart with his passing, drew fouls, and blew past defenders when they got too close.
But when CSKA played slightly off Doncic, they had more success. If he can’t go in a straight line to the rim, he tends to dance too much rather than making a decisive move.
I think CSKA’s best chance to slow down Doncic is by giving him a little space, forcing him into his step-back three and living with the results.
Austin Green is an international journalist and scout covering EuroLeague and NBA prospects in Europe and Australia. You can follow him on Twitter @LosCrossovers.